Bayh's Resignation/Retirement

Big news in Indiana today (and at some level, national political news), is that Evan Bayh announced that he will not seek reelection this coming November to the Senate. The political observant in me finds the timing very interesting. I think most people figured he would have a tough race, assuming the political climate stays the same from now until October/November. Its a mid term election, there's gridlock for the most part in Washington, the economy is still in very slow recovery - its going to be a difficult year for incumbents, particularly those incumbents part of the controlling party, Democrats.

But the timing seems to hurt not just Democrats in trying to find a replacement, but also Republicans. Republican candidate for that seat, or at least the only one who has announced, is Dan Coats. I don't see Coats as a particularly strong candidate, particularly among independent voters in Indiana. He does not have a current Indiana address, still residing in Virginia. While he has Indiana ties, he has worked in D.C. for the past several years as a lobbyist of sorts, making it difficult for him to position himself as an outsider, which is key when most people have a very negative opinion of D.C. insiders at the moment. Had Bayh announced earlier, a stronger Republican candidate may have emerged as opposed to Coats. Its still a ways from the election, and the economy can do a lot between now and then to completely change the landscape, but Bayh's retirement from the Senate doesn't just have that negative impact on the Democrats, although it does hurt them more. It will be interesting to see who runs in Bayh's place, particularly because I don't think Coats is that great of a candidate, and despite the political climate and the short turn around, I think the right candidate can defeat Coats (maybe not another Republican, but Coats).

I'm also interested in seeing what Evan Bayh does from here. He's still fairly young, so just walking away completely from politics seems far fetched in my mind. He talked today about disliking Washington, not disliking politics in general, and Indiana in particular. He was governor here for two terms, but the laws only term limit to two consecutive terms, meaning he can run for governor again. He mentioned today how he liked being an "executive." Some may interpret this to mean he may be gunning for a presidential run in the future. But just like Palin, I don't think you can essentially quit your current job and hope to run for President later successfully (although quitting would be better than losing an election, I suppose), its too difficult to stay in people's consciousness and too difficult not to let the "quitting" affect your popularity among independent voters. In addition, if he doesn't like Washington, and decides to go back, it would kill his ability to win a national election. I can see Bayh running for Governor of Indiana in 2012. He has the prior experience, and remains popular among many independent voters in Indiana. His fiscal conservativeness may attract a rare Republican vote or two. He also would have successfully separated himself Washington by being absent for the two years running up the election in 2012. In addition, his name recognition in Indiana would be akin to that of an incumbent, and with current Governor Mitch Daniels term limited after two consecutive terms, Bayh would be running against someone who would unlikely have those equivalent advantages.

Still a long way to seeing how everything shakes out with this, but I do think it will be interesting on both a state and national level.